With the broadcast upfront finished, industry analysts could not have been further off from their early predictions about the upfront.  Early forecasts predicted a buyer’s market due to the uncertainties of the economy and the lingering effects of the writers’ strike.  However, when the dust settled, advertisers committed approximately $9.2 billion to primetime broadcast TV for the 2008-2009 season, roughly flat to last year.

• ABC netted $100 million more than last year at $2.5 billion in primetime commitments, which includes primetime sports telecasts. ABC’s CPM averaged +9 percent and the network sold 80-85 percent of their inventory, about three percent more than last year.

• CBS was in step with ABC also scooping up $2.5 billion which is $50 million more than last year. However, this number does not include the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championships. CBS also sold 80-85 percent of its primetime inventory which is up a few points from 2007, and averaged +8 percent CPM.

• FOX stacked up commitments totaling $1.95 billion which is up a bit over last year and posted CPM on average at +9 to+10 percent.

• NBC reported selling 80 percent of its inventory totaling $1.9 billion, up from $1.8 billion in 2007 at a +5 percent CPM.

• The CW wrote $380 million in primetime business which is down from $570 million in 2007, mostly due to the network giving up its Sundays nights to syndicated programming. For its Monday-Friday inventory, The CW averaged a +8 percent CPM.

Outside of primetime, there was strength in the other network dayparts (except for evening news); all saw year-over-year growth in dollar volume.  Late night, which has been a stagnant daypart over the last several years, took in more dollar volume than the previous year, largely in part to increased spending from pharmaceutical companies. Late night CPM increases were in the range of 4-5 percent.  Daytime, even with declining ratings, saw CPM spikes of 8-10 percent.  Early morning, saw increases of 7-9 percent versus year ago while evening news was the only one to see flat to down dollars versus last year. 

So why the large CPM increases with an uncertain economy and declining ratings?  Advertisers moved scatter dollars into the upfront to avoid paying the same hefty increases they did in this past year. Scatter only advertisers moved their dollars into the upfront.   And networks sold more inventory in this upfront than in previous years.  Networks typically will sell between 70-75 percent of their inventory during the upfront, this year the number was in the range of 80-85 percent.  The true strength of the market will not be known until holds convert to orders and the scatter market begins.

SYNDICATION
The strength of the syndication upfront market took both buyers and sellers by surprise.  As sales concluded, syndication posted a 4.5 percent increase to $2.4 billion.  Part of the growth of the syndication market can be attributed to syndication’s pitch as an alternative to broadcast prime for major categories like retail and automotive.  Other hot categories for syndication were pharmaceuticals and movie companies.  Top-tier first run and off-net programming netted price increases in the 8-9 percent range, despite declining ratings in shows like Oprah and Dr. Phil.  New shows that buyers took an interest in included The Bonnie Hunt Show, Deal or No Deal and Legend of the Seeker, while court shows drew less interest from advertisers.  

CABLE
Cable, like broadcast and syndication, had a record upfront season.  After all the pennies are counted, cable is likely to be up in volume in the neighborhood of 10-15 percent versus last year; total dollars tallying somewhere near $8 billion.  Larger networks like TBS, TNT, USA, Sci-Fi, Food, and HGTV have seen significant CPM increases, in the range of 7-10 percent.  They have also seen their overall dollar increase as much as 25 percent.  Networks report they have seen increases from automotive, retail and financial services, three categories that were reported to be down in the broadcast upfront.

Empower was successful in beating the industry averages across all media vehicles.

By: Susan McClellan, Empower MediaMarketing National Media Strategist