OVERVIEW

The 2008 political elections were highly anticipated. A multitude of presidential hopefuls, along with the entire House and one-third of the Senate was up for re-election.  With so much on the line many experts predicted the media spending for this election cycle would surpass $4 billion! 

Empower anticipated this heavy level of activity starting as early as third quarter of 2007 and led clients steadily through a very unchartered marketplace in 2008.  Early on, Empower educated clients on political terms and predictions, recommending to take advantage of different media tactics within and beyond TV so that schedules would run properly and still drive business goals. In addition, Empower met with several local TV station managers to discuss predictions and tactics for the election year.  Given the potential for multiple quarters of political advertising, Empower advised clients to place early before the political windfall of spending.  With close monitoring, Empower was able to steward most schedules with limited political pre-emptions throughout the year, as political spending topped out at $2.5 billion.

2008 is definitely one to be summarized as an election year of many “firsts”.  In both the political arena and the media marketplace, several trends occurred that had Never Been Seen Before in any previous election. 

NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE POLITICAL TRENDS

• 2008 was the first election in 56 years with no incumbant.  A total of 27 candidates entered the pool early on.
 
• Within this pool of candidates, Hillary Clinton became the first female presidential candidate to run for a major party.

• As the primary season kicked off, 2008 marked the first primary season with 23 states holding their primaries on one day- February 5 or Super Tuesday.

• Michigan and Florida hoped to make an impact by moving their primary elections prior to Super Tuesday, however as a result their election results were deemed null and void, a first in the primary election.

• As the field of candidates narrowed from 27 to 3 (Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John McCain), campaign fundraising continued to be an important factor to advertising spending.  Barack Obama set a campaign fund raising record by being the first to raise roughly $700 million for his presidential campaign.

• As the election continued, the electoral states map had several states move for the first time from distinct red (Republican) and blue (Democratic) states to a shade of purple- meaning several states were undecided, and had the potential to “swing” in favor of either party.

• When the race then lessened to two candidates (Obama and McCain), the anticipation over vice presidential picks switched for the first time in the election to John McCain as it was Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin (Gov. AK) that drew most of the attention from the press and had a large impact on the election.

• On November 4, 2008 Barack Obama was elected the 44th President of the United States, winning 365 electoral votes, and is the first African-American elected to the Presidency.

NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE MEDIA TRENDS

• With so much anticipation for the 2008 election, candidates spent money for the first time on a national level with several cable networks such as CNN, Fox News and MSNBC, these networks saw record viewership versus the 2004 election.

• Barack Obama started to break from the pack in terms of advertising strategies, being the first to target younger voters, understanding their importance to this election, and their different media habits.

• Part of Obama’s strategy to target younger voters was to leverage the digital space, spending over $16 million in online advertising.  Tactics like social networking, in-game advertising and mobile texting had never been seen in any other campaign, and allowed Obama to be the first to brand himself early with the young audience.

• The push of TV and the pull of the Internet not only helped candidates from a fundraising perspective, but allowed them to be flexible with first time large spends with Google search and display, as well as geotargeting to reach key states as they moved from hot to cold.

• The national Television buys continued to grow more popular due to the attention generated and so many states being up for grabs leading up to the election.  One of particular importance was a first time ad spend with the Olympic games by both candidates, including Network and Cable spots.

• Leading up to the general election on 11/4, both McCain and Obama dumped money into key states placing the first 2 minute television ads in the campaign in markets like Cincinnati and Denver.

• Obama then secured additional long form content, negotiating 30 full minutes of ad time during Prime Time on CBS, NBC, and FOX, a first in 16 years.  Ross Perot was the last candidate to buy similar ad time in Prime Time in 1992.

PREDICTIONS

2008 redefined both the political and media landscape in an election year.  The Never Been Seen Before theme will continue on into elections moving forward.  Here are some predictions for what could be seen in 2012 or as early as 2010.

The intensity of the 2010 mid-term and 2012 Congressional and National elections will depend on the success of the Obama Presidency. If Barack Obama is able to build on his current popularity then the Democrats should maintain their majority in both houses. However, if his approval numbers begin to slide there is a chance of fierce competition during the 2010 and 2012 races.

From a media perspective, this could mean a shift in election trends to:  less local, more national, and more digital.  Candidates could see a cost break of going national in future elections, especially leading up to condensed state primary elections like Super Tuesday.  The digital arena will continue to grow and be even more valuable in future campaigns as voters personalize their election experience.

By: Courtney Ackerman courtney.ackerman@empowermm.com